A World of Opportunity Manufacturing Outsourcing Opportunities in China

4Jan/101

Playing Football in the Rain

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Growing up in Ohio, I was fortunate enough to play football on a pretty decent high school team. Our season began in the dog days of summer and ran into the first autumn frost. At some point during those four months a good solid downpour during a game was inevitable which meant a contest mired in mud and the need for a revised game plan.

Now the pessimistic coach might consider this to be a disadvantage to his chances of winning the game. But a more strategic and forward thinking leader would understand both teams faced quarterbacks with wet hands, blockers bogged down in soggy clumps of turf and receivers whose completion numbers were going to be anything but stellar. The conditions of the game while presenting new challenges, would be equitable for each participant. So in the end it would be a level headed strategist who understood and exploited his team’s strengths—advantages even we may not have known we had, who would be celebrating victory after four quarters of play.

In low cost country sourcing, I have heard grumblings for the past five years about jobs lost to China. Indeed, the groundwork laid by Kissinger and Nixon in the 70s to open up free trade with China could have been perceived as an overcast forecast for some players. However, just as we discovered, the right plans and execution meant we could be quite successful rather than assuming failure was looming.

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Global Impact

China is set to become the world’s second largest economy. Those Western companies, who have built the equity of their brands over the past several decades, should recognize the opportunities that exist in China and other parts of Asia for marketing their goods and services. The investments U.S. firms have made in intellectual property, trial and error and innovation are unmatched anywhere in the world. So why haven’t more companies embraced this vast market that exists?

Whether we are talking about cosmetics, heavy equipment, apparel, software, consumer goods, or electronics, there is an insatiable demand for Western products overseas. Even in today’s depressed economic times, the needs for world class technology to complete huge infrastructure projects provide rare market opportunities to international companies.

China’s rebound for the first 3 months of 2009 is considerable. Expectations for economic growth for the next quarter are at 12%, so economists generally expect 7 to 8% overall growth this year.

Why then, is China poised for a rebound when the rest of the global economy is experiencing its worst performance in decades?

According to reports out of China, retail sales have continued to increase strongly with the help of the government which has offered China’s 800 Million farmers VAT exemptions on big ticket purchases, namely electrical appliances. The resulting effect is a replacement of exports through domestic consumption without a loss for the state. Retail sales went up 15% this past March compared to the same time a year ago.

China announced its stimulus investment program last October and took extraordinary measures to make it happen. Just prior to year end, 2008, USD 58 Billion of pending projects were approved within one week. Because the Chinese save most in the world they created the largest bank in the world (in deposits) passing American and Japanese rivals JPMorgan and Mitsubishi-UFJ. China is now home to the top 3 banks, reflecting the confidence of investors in Chinese banks. In the first quarter of 2009 new loans accounted for more than all new loans in 2007.

Exports are picking up too. From a monthly all time high of USD 136 Billion in September 2008, exports fell every month to a low of USD 65 Billion in February (25% less the 2008 figure). But, in March they rebounded to 90 Billion.

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New Market Opportunities

China’s size and growth create enormous opportunity in 2009. As a growing consumer market, the number of millionaires has grown to 825,000, many younger than 40. According to an April 30 Wall Street Journal article, the $585 billion stimulus program has "quickly funneled money into everything from bridges to consumers' pockets." There are countless municipal projects which now need to be completed including high speed trains, power plants, telecommunication systems, hospitals and water treatment plants--all which will be built in second and third tier cities. Business processes outsourcing (BPO), and high-technologies have been singled out as fast investments on the coast. Hi-tech will continue to rebound driving demand for components - all which will be made in China. Imports have started to recover since the beginning of the year.

Heavy equipment sales have increased as is evidenced by the attendance of almost 200,000 visitors to the China International Machine Tools fair in April. Caterpillar Inc. CEO James Owens, according the WSJ article, says "the company's excavator sales in China have returned to record levels in recent months." He goes on to say that "China continues to start work much more quickly than the U.S."

Lower Manufacturing Costs

According to a recent report by Supply Chain Digest, "between lower wage pressures and the fact that most Chinese factories operating at low levels of utilization, Western buyers are gaining more pricing clout than they have had in years. The Chinese government, for example, says the value of China's exports fell 25.7 percent year-over-year in February, accelerating from a tough 17.5 percent decline in January."

Estimates of Hong-Kong based manufacturers in China indicate that business activity is stabilizing 20-30% lower than before the crisis. Forced to reduce prices in an over-supplied environment, Chinese producers have no other choice but to become the most competitive, even against other Asian producers.

"Deflation [in China pricing] is here to stay," believes William Fung, managing director at Li & Fung. "Buyers have more of an upper hand again."

That’s because export volumes to the weak economies of the US, Europe and Japan show no signs of recovering soon. However, there are signs that China’s manufacturing sector is recovering on its own, without much help from export customers, as the country’s economic stimulus plan and focus on bolstering the internal economy start to pay off.

By February, the producer price index went down 4.5% year on year, to its November 2007 level. The trend accelerated in March with a 6% drop. The consumer prices naturally followed, resulting in an actual deflation (-1.6% in February and -1.2% in March).

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The World’s Second Largest Economy Emerges

According to Daniel Meckstroth, economist at the Manufacturers Alliance in Arlington, VA, "the hope is that China would become an engine of growth to drive the local economy." China’s proactive response to the crisis has enabled it to be the first to bounce back. This flexibility will not only result in China becoming the world's second largest economy, but will also let it take its rightful place atop the value chain. Therefore it will have to invest to improve and maintain its cost competitiveness, as both a viable market and as a manufacturing leader. Should the U.S., Europe and other trading partners be able to weather the current storm, China will play a major role in world economic recovery.

A Winning Season

Those U.S. companies who spend their time, energy and resources embracing this new China market rather than disparaging others who offshore low value added labor, will actually enjoy playing on the muddy playing field that our global economy has become. In the end, the sun will still rise in the East and set on the West. The soggy ground will firm up and those who respond to all elements of the season accordingly will record a win.

David Alexander is President of BaySource Global, a U.S. based manufacturing and project management firm with offices in Shenzhen and Shanghai. www.baysourceglobal.com

22Sep/090

Down on China? Not so fast

1.3 billion people. Or at least that's the most widely believed figure representing the population of China. There are many who believe the number is actually 1.5 billion and growing. China's GDP is back to 10% and thanks to the 2009 stimulus package there are tens of thousands of infrastructure jobs in progress. So why aren't more decision makers including China in their plans? One Tampa company did just that.

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Dais Analytic got its start producing high-tech filter membranes to improve air quality and cut energy costs in homes and businesses. It has expanded to develop products for desalination, wastewater treatment and energy storage, among other things. Although it currently has only 18 employees plans have been inked to add 1,000 jobs over the next five years, thanks to a $200 million trade agreement with China. Born about 10 years ago from an idea for developing fuel cells at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, N.Y., Dais Analytic opened in Pasco County in 1998, lured by tax breaks and assistance. The company specializes in nanotechnology: crafting materials that work with matter on the atomic and molecular level.

Its first commercial product, called ConsERV, is used with heating, air-conditioning and ventilation systems. It uses a membrane with microscopic channels that allow molecules of water to pass through the filter.

Incoming and outgoing air pass through the membrane in separate channels, with the outgoing air helping to cool the incoming warm air. The humidity in the air is condensed to molecules, so it becomes vapor with no condensation. Using the membrane to bring fresh, filtered air into the home or business can save energy costs and reduce pollution, the company says.

BaySource Global assists companies in their offshore manufacturing strategies as well as working with U.S. companies who are looking to commercialize their lines within China.

www.baysourceglobal.com

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26Aug/091

Who is Responsible for monitoring Quality when utilizing low cost country sources?

China is notoriously blamed for quality issues in products sold in the West. But who really is responsible for ensuring quality can be found in products shipped abroad from China? In a former July post to 10 Linked In Groups associated with manufacturing, engineering, supply chain and quality control this was the question posed. Readers eagerly provided a total 104 responses of which 49 gave specific answers. The results could be summarized and compiled into 8 consistent categories. They were:

1. The Manufacturer – 11 respondents
2. Purchasing- the buyer- in house sourcing – 8 respondents
3. A reliable third party QC firm – 8 respondents
4. Cross functional teams (purchasing, engineering, & production) – 7 respondents
5. The company importing the goods – 7 respondents
6. In house QC – 4 respondents
7. The seller/customer – 3 respondents
8. Entire supply chain – 1 respondent

Readers also chimed in with these sage morsels of advice:

• Do not start LCC sourcing if you are not able to build the appropriate team. Consider outsourcing it to insure the quality of your supply chain.

• Specifications must be clear as to the quality standards expected and the acceptance test regime and what happens to the rejects - you do not want them to appear in the local street market if it is a branded item!

• Be present at intervals throughout the production process. The factory you visit may not be the one producing the goods.

• Establish a personal rapport with your supplier. It is good business and makes communication a lot easier.

• Arrange for acceptance testing - either by your own staff or by an outside agency in the country of origin. Nothing is shipped without inspection.

• Develop a supplier approval process.

• Allot resources for site visits.

• Get references for third party teams.

• Determine their ability to complete the contract. Determine if supplier is financially stable. Assure that they have systems and certifications, such as ISO-9001, in place.

• Ensure that they are motivated to provide quality and on-time delivery.

• Be clear why you are using a low cost country and take all costs into account - it may not be so low cost in the end.

So in summary, everyone has a stake in quality even though it is easiest to point the finger at the manufacturer (China). If we capture all the great advice from industry experts, heed the wisdom and incorporate all these due processes, everyone will come out a winner.

Linked In Groups:

GVRT Council of Supply Chain Managers
Global Sourcing
Innovative New Product and Service Innovators
ISM Purchasing and Supply Chain Managers
Offshoring & Outsourcing Forum
Procurement and Supply Chain Leaders
Procurement Professionals
Retail Global Sourcing
SME Society of Manufacturing Engineers
Strategic Sourcing and Procurement

David Alexander is President of BaySource Global, a leading China consulting firm specializing in project management, sourcing, establishing China procurement, and selling into China. He can be reached at david.alexander@baysource.net

www.baysourceglobal.com

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9Apr/090

Embracing Global Resources for Local Advantages

David Alexander

David Alexander

In the midst of these economic challanges, decision makers need to understand the advantages of looking globally for positive domestic results. While jobs shrink in the U.S. it has been easy to cast a dark shadow with manufacturing outsourcing as the key culprit. Too often though we sit back and scratch our heads wondering why low value add jobs have moved offshore rather than strategize on how to effectively incorporate the benefits of low cost labor with supply chain initiatives here. For marketers in the U.S. the value propositions of product innovation, speed to market and service have to be the platform which separates winners from their competition.

In the April 8 Wall Street Journal, writer Tim Aeppel features Craftmaster Furniture and their story of winning market share while competitors flounder. By combining a solid offshore sourcing initiative for high labor components and unique upholstery with the need for quick turnaround time and service, CEO Roy Calcagne has "increased revenues by 4% in an $80 billion industry that has declined by 20% in the last six months. Craftmaster has even hired 75 additional workers in a factory that employs almost 500 according to Aeppel's article."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123879125297987681.html

 

Basically the company takes the approach of a nimble and responsive partner to their customer base, while maintaining margins through low cost country sourcing. This collaborative strategy is one that has continually proven effective in the U.S. and not immediately stereotyped for the demise of overpriced, low value jobs. See

http://www.baysourceglobal.com/PortlandBusinessJournal-BaySourceWhitePaper.pdf

2Feb/093

A Conversation on doing business in China

baysourcelogo The following is a recap of a January 21, 2009 panel discussion hosted by the Orlando Chapter of ACG (Association for Corporate Growth) on the ins and outs of doing business in China. David Alexander, president of BaySource Global www.baysourceglobal.com was one of the featured speakers along with Brian Su of Artisan Business Group and Jim Gaynor, CEO of Lightpath Technologies.

ACG Moderator: Discuss how this global recession has impacted doing business with and in China

Alexander: The Credit crisis affecting all industries. Volumes are down and many factories dependent on U.S. retail and consumer volume have closed. People are strongly revisiting “In-Sourcing” due to attrition in volumes. A local trade association predicts that by late January, Dongguan and its neighbors Shenzhen and Guangzhou will lose 9,000 of their 45,000 factories.“Many factories are looking at completely empty order books," warned Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered, who believes the export sector may even shrink next year. Green believes China will see 7.9% growth in 2009 - well below the double digit figures of the past five years.“Government statistics show that 67,000 factories of various sizes were shuttered in China in the first half of the year,” said Cao Jianhai, an industrial economics researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. By year’s end, he said, more than 100,000 plants will have closed. The wave of factory closings began in Guangdong province, where the nation’s economic reforms were launched three decades ago. The region accounts for about 30% of China’s exports, but over the last couple of years, Shenzhen, Dongguan and other cities in the area have sought to clean up the environment and create an economy based more on services and higher-value products. Makers of labor-intensive goods such as shoes, garments and furniture no longer felt welcome.”Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, a trade group with 3,000 members, has estimated that as many as 15% of the 70,000 factories run by Hong Kong businesspeople in the mainland will close this year. He says many more are likely to shut after Chinese New Year in February, when millions of migrant laborers will return home for several days. “Once workers go home, they can close down the factory quietly,” he said in an interview in Hong Kong.

ACG Moderator: Given this recession, specifically, how has the outsourced manufacturing space been impacted?

Alexander: People have been forced to re-analyze bringing manufacturing back due to lower volumes. Less scale means reduced leverage with factories. Reduced demand = longer lead times with higher volume/less frequent orders. Carrying costs of capital increases; customer response times impacted. IKEA for instance has recently opened a plant in Virginia.In an April survey of nearly 1,000 companies by RSM McGladrey, the number planning to move offshore fell by 20% from a year earlier

ACG Moderator: Further explore the costs of shipping/freight as they impact this model

Alexander: Increased energy costs toward the end of 08 meant freight as a % of COGS increased. There were fewer containers coming into port—first declines since 2006; down 1.5% from Nov 07. At $150 barrel 40’ container $8,000 vs. $3,000 a year ago or $100. At $200 it would be $15K. Through July 19, U.S. railroads had carried 5 million shipping containers, down 3.4% with the same period last year. Containers that slow to 23mph from 29MPH save 20% but this means freight lines have to add containers. However, freight increases alone not cause in wholesale trade pattern shift back to US mfg. The Economy is key driver. Higher fuel costs will also cause a shift in Lean inventory. May see proliferation in warehouses to be closer to customers. The Freight Transportation Services Index dropped 1.4 percent from October to November to 107.6, the lowest level since January, 2004. The index is down 4.9 percent from its historic peak of 113.1 reached in November, 2005, the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported.
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ACG Moderator: Discuss the Chinese economy both how it's being impacted by this economy internally and how externally the commodity markets are being impacted around the world.

Alexander: China's exports fell in November for the first time in seven years and manufacturing activity shrank in December for a third straight month. Material costs will always fluctuate globally and are consistent around the world. With fuel and energy costs subsiding a bit and with material costs softening, Labor is still the key driver for the feasibility of offshore manufacturing.

Still it seems like the economy is chugging along normally though. In the city where one colleague lives there were more than 4000 cars newly registered in the first week of Jan alone. This is a city of 3M people and the roads are already crowded. We are not sure how many weeks like that one in Jan. we can survive and still keep cars moving along. Also, remember, the Chinese are good at saving money. The China economy is predicted to be as large as U.S. by 2030. All this said, this crisis has been a time of reckoning. Americans are buying fewer Chinese DVD players and microwave ovens. Trade is collapsing, and thousands of workers are losing their jobs. Chinese leaders are terrified of social unrest. Having allowed the renminbi to rise a little after 2005, the Chinese government is now under intense pressure domestically to reverse course and depreciate it. China’s fortunes remain tethered to those of the United States. And the reverse is equally true. The Treasury conducts nearly daily auctions of billions of dollars’ worth of government bonds. For the past five years, China has been one of the most prolific bidders. It holds $652 billion in Treasury debt, up from $459 billion a year ago. Add in its Fannie Mae bonds and other holdings, and analysts figure China owns $1 of every $10 of America’s public debt. The Treasury is conducting more auctions than ever to finance its $700 billion bailout of the banks. Still more will be needed to pay for the incoming Obama administration’s stimulus package. The United States, economists say, will depend on the Chinese to keep buying that debt, perpetuating the American spending habit.Many firms in the auto, luxury, travel & tourism and real estate industries have begun reporting a significant decline in spend. Where the greatest opportunity lies, is in the rural economy. It is the economy that has lagged far behind the others - It is the economy that has more than 700 million people - It is the economy were small nominal gains can equate to large.

ACG Moderator: Discuss the idea of building markets in China coming from the U.S. or Europe

Alexander: According to The Kiplinger Letter, for 2009, trade will shrink worldwide by 2.1 percent to $115 billion and U.S. exports will drop 0.5 percent. It said the hardest hit areas will be machine tools, chemicals, plastics, mining gear and turbines, while medical products, farm goods and construction equipment should weather 2009 relatively well. Kiplinger predicted no worldwide growth for gross domestic products in 2009, and negative growth in the U.S. There are still good opportunities for growth. Certain products that sell well in China and come from USA are mostly niche items. Examples: Zippo Lighters, cosmetics from famous names like Estee Lauder cars, and famous brand clothing. Western brands will always be in demand.

ACG Moderator: Discuss how the Chinese government is impacting companies that want to either invest in China financially or via a joint venture or with manufacturing facilities - VAT rebates, and clean industry versus smokestacks

Alexander: In July, 07 VAT rebates were rescinded for 553 industries. The gov't just increased the VAT refund for exported goods to help with the economy. The price of raw materials is way down now so batteries, and other items have gone down in price about 30%. China will increase the export tax rebates for some machinery products as of Jan. 1, 2009, in a bid to alleviate cost burdens on exporters (back to 17%). The most recent increase took effect on Dec.1, covering 3,770 items of labor-intensive, mechanical and electrical products, or 27.9 percent of the country's total exports.

ACG Moderator: Discuss product quality concerns in Chinese manufacturing

Alexander: Any U.S. concern marketing a product manufactured in China is ultimately responsible for product/project management. This means clearly stating product specs and tolerances, material specs, defect rates, etc When we leave too much in the hands of Chinese manufacturers is when we run into issues.China does need better IT and process control. There is a lot of opportunity for IT/IS but also the Chinese don't know they need this. They don't even use part numbers in most businesses... Our biggest opportunity from US to China is to engrain our production management know-how. One of the main problems in producing quality here is that the workers and managers themselves don't know what to expect in a quality product because they don't consume such items. "They have no feel for what quality is."There is also little accountability for goods that fail after some time in service. Example: If you buy a new house, everything will be perfect when you buy it but things will soon start to break because they weren't made well. They might try to fix it but how can you fix a tile floor if all the tiles were installed following a standard that is not up to par? Example: they paint bare wood or walls without priming the wood first. The paint looks great for a year, then it lifts off in big sections but it’s too late for anyone to be accountable then. Your average Chinese homeowner has no idea how to paint or do other home repairs compared to the average American.This is why you need to have your interests well looked after. Also, a serious weakness of Chinese engineers is their reluctance to ask questions. This has to do with the cultural myth of “lose face.”Because of the importance of relationships and family sometimes they will hire their friend/family member instead of hiring the best person for the job. This also limits their success in some ways. Take Auto parts for instance. The Speed at which China has been industrialized means quality concerns and recalls are growing. Their revolution happened in a quarter of the time that ours did.The Chinese are unfamiliar with or don’t care about U.S. auto quality standards. Under federal law the importer of record is responsible for recalls and quality concerns. Many small importers (anyone can be importer) aren’t familiar with regulations and suppliers don’t have the capital to handle recalls.We also have to communicate the long term implications of the business opportunity to the Chinese factory. If they think a project is ‘one and done’ then this impacts price Everything is a negotiation.

ACG Moderator: Discuss the cultural differences especially as it relates to building relationships in China.

Alexander: The Chinese always consider their relationship with another person when they do business with that person. For example, they can never turn away from doing business with a friend even if there is a better product they should be seeking. At least they can't do it in front of everyone so they might do it secretly. The Chinese prefer to deal with people they know and trust. Western companies have to make themselves known to the Chinese before any business can take place. Furthermore, this relationship is not simply between companies but also between individuals at a personal level. The relationship is not just before sales take place but it is an ongoing process. The company has to maintain the relationship if it wants to do more business with the Chinese. The relationship sometimes begins based on money then moves to integrity and trustworthiness. Frequent contact is important.

ACG Moderator: Discuss other emerging markets such as Vietnam, South America and Mexico briefly as they relate to the evolution of the Chinese markets and increased shipping costs.

AlexanderMuch is predicated on fuel costs. Also higher expenses, plus higher taxes and stricter enforcement of labor and environmental standards, are causing some manufacturers to leave for lower-cost markets such as Vietnam, Indonesia and India.Despite its huge pool of unskilled rural laborers, China's supply of experienced, skilled talent falls far short of demand. The gap has been pushing wages up by 10 percent to 15 percent a year.Inland cities like Luoyang and Wuhan, outside the traditional export zones of Guangdong and the Yangtze River Delta, near Shanghai are emerging. In inland China, wages still lag far behind the richer eastern and southern coastal areas.

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7Jan/090

Outsourcing to China not always simple

Sign Manufacturer Cuts Manufacturing Costs in Half by Outsourcing to China
By John Harney, Business Writer January 2009
mainimageOutsourcing manufacturing work to China is a cost-saving but often not a hassle-free undertaking, especially if your company does not have a liaison in place. This liaison must understand the manufacturing practices, expectations, culture, and pricing in China and how they differ from those in the United States and be able to effectively communicate that information to the U.S. office.
Creative Mailbox & Sign Designs is a manufacturer of mailboxes and signs that does $8 million a year in revenues and employs 65 personnel. It has three lines of business. The Residential line manufactures mailboxes and street signs for master plan communities; the Commercial lines does signage for office buildings; and the Department of Transportation line takes care of Department of Transportation signage for interstate and other highways.
It sounds like a simple enough business -- design a sign, send the design to China, and have them make it and send it back in quantity. Jamie Harden, CEO of Creative Mailbox & Sign Designs, says it's not that easy. "We had a relationship with a stamped aluminum outsourcer and manufacturer in China. We found quality inconsistency issues, poor communication, and lack of connectivity into their Asian organization," he says.
Harden might convey specs and other data and instructions to the U.S. liaison but had no direct communication with the Chinese portion of the business. The result was miscommunication and mistakes, which cut into Creative Signs' margins and held up manufacturing schedules. "We felt like we were buying a product instead of being in a situation where we could go through a more collaborative design process. It was not a real partnership," says Harden. "No pun intended, but we often felt like something was lost in translation," he adds. As a result, the company sought an outsourcing partner elsewhere.
Collaboration is key
Understandably, says Harden, "we were really looking for a service provider that would help us develop a partnership that would give us reliability, quality, effective communication, and good connectivity into Asia." Harden's company found exactly that when it phased out the existing outsourcing contract and teamed with BaySource Global www.baysourceglobal.com in June 2006. The company used BaySource to manufacture mailboxes for distribution into its Residential market, and BaySource proved to be both consultative and communicative from the get-go. "From the beginning they went out of their way to understand our needs," says Harden.
"We had e-mails and conference calls not only with David Alexander, president of BaySource, who runs the domestic side of things, but also with his partners in China; so we really had great connectivity right into that organization," says Harden.
Creative Mailboxes has in-house graphics designers who come up with images of the product, which they send via the Internet to Alexander. His team takes engineering drawings and specifications, and drops them as CAD drawings into BaySource manufacturing program. This helps the Chinese supplier determine the tooling process, which is necessary to be able to get a quote, according to Harden.
If the buyer can't provide CAD drawings, BaySource’s China team -- all trained in professional CAD shops in China -- can develop them for the client. BaySource then comes back with a proposal that states the tooling costs as well as the cost of the product. The supplier also provides a timeline, including how much turnaround time it will take from delivering initial drawings to providing a sample to finally delivering the product.
According to Harden, "We gave them the specifications but said, 'If you can add any value to the process, feel free to offer it.' So they came up with a few tweaks here and there to help us come up with a superior product. For instance, they designed a new latch for the mailbox and even went out of their way to find the paint we wanted to use."
Basically, Harden adds, "As they were doing design, they were sending us pictures to see if it looked right. Sometimes what happens is you lose so much time to market because the manufacturer wants to just do a sample -- with no pictures beforehand -- and send that to you." This is an advantage because if the sample is not right, the manufacturer has to repeat the new sample process.
The price is right
Harden readily admits that BaySource delivered "a quality product." What's more, the pricing was "extremely competitive." By outsourcing to China, his company was able to keep design/manufacturing cost of each unit to just $8. Harden estimates that if he'd have attempted manufacturing in the United States, it would have cost twice that.
The lower cost also gives Harden's company a healthy sales margin to work with since it sells the mailboxes for $30 a unit. Better margins obviously keep the company more competitive since it's now also coping with a weak U.S. economy.
A one-stop shop
According to Alexander, his company takes over the project from the start. "All we need to understand is whether a customer has ever outsourced a product before or if it's a product that's currently something its procurement department is obtaining from a domestic distributor." This gives BaySource a baseline from which to estimate its own and the customer's needs.
The China office handles the specs, engineering drawings, and samples as well as sets cost targets and annual volumes and the like. Then, says Alexander, "we take that project and match it with a capable factory in China."
BaySource therefore acts as a liaison between its customer and any of 50 factories it has bid on jobs. And Alexander acts as liaison between American customers and the BaySource Chinese operation.
The China team is manned with Chinese-speaking personnel as well as engineers. When BaySource visits the factories to explain the job and later to confirm that the factory is making products to the customer's specification, the personnel have to talk to one another in the same language. "I don't mean Chinese," says Alexander, "so much as one engineer talking to another. Because of the specialized terms, it takes an engineer to talk to an engineer."
For its efforts, BaySource nets a profit margin in the high single digits to low double digits. This keeps its services cost-competitive, particularly in an underperforming economy.
As Alexander is quick to point out, "More companies are doing business in China, so competition is increasing. The market will dictate what the costs will be. If we gouge a customer, we may lose them for good." At BaySource, therefore, good business strategies dovetail with ethical business practices, a situation that is increasingly rare these days.
Lessons from the Outsourcing Journal:
• Customers that outsource manufacturing to China should have an outsourcing supplier there that understands Chinese manufacturing practices, expectations, culture, and pricing and how they differ from those in the United States
• Ideally the outsourcing supplier should be a company that helps the customer develop a partnership that gives the customer reliability, quality, effective communication, and good connectivity into Asia.
• The supplier should present the customer with designs throughout the design and manufacturing process to ensure that the sample that results is correct. Otherwise, if the sample is defective, the customer loses valuable time to market in the process of creating a new sample.
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18Mar/082

MRO Buying gets strategic

MRO buyers look ahead, and see more outsourcing, long-term planning, global buying and supplier alliances.

By Susan Avery -- Purchasing, 3/13/2008

Following are excerpts from Susan Avery's article in Purchasing which point out some interesting trends as they relate to offshore manufacturing and outsourcing. 

There's no longer any question—the MRO buy is strategic.

Purchasing got an overwhelming response from readers to a recent survey on their role in the maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) buy. Of the purchasing professionals who responded to the poll, 88% say the buy is more strategic today than it was five years ago, and they provide evidence—success stories—to back up the statement.

Results of the survey show MRO purchasers have slashed the supply base and formed closer relationships with a smaller number of key suppliers. They've embraced technology for the procure-to-pay process; buyers at plant sites are placing orders directly with suppliers with which the company has national or regional contracts, often using online catalogs. For their part, MRO suppliers provide technical assistance to the plants, bringing in their suppliers (the manufacturers), when help with such activities as product substitution and demand management is needed.

 ...

So, what's next? Where is the MRO buy heading? What is happening today at companies in just about every industry across the nation provides some indication of what's to come for purchasing pros with responsibility for MRO, respondents say.

Other MRO purchasers say they expect to be sourcing for other divisions within their companies, and searching for suppliers with capability to provide goods and services to locations outside North America. Some seek supplier help with low-cost country sourcing efforts. Most of the survey respondents now are looking at MRO over the long term—something relatively new for many purchasers.

More outsourcing

The sourcing operation at BNSF Railway Co. started to look at its MRO buy with an eye towards the strategic about two years ago. Since then, sourcing has worked to standardize processes and data and taken steps to rationalize the supply base, forming relationships with fewer suppliers or integrators that can do more than simply provide products to the company.

Aligning goals of both purchasing and supply organizations is key, says Doug Keady, director of strategic sourcing and contract governance for BNSF in Ft. Worth, Texas. "I challenge suppliers every time we talk," he says. In those discussions, Keady works to ensure suppliers understand the company's business and are willing to offer up their expertise to bring new ideas to the table.

Global sourcing

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) in Glenview, Ill., started to look at MRO purchasing more strategically three to four years ago when management tapped Gary Anton to be vice president of corporate strategic sourcing. Until that time, each of the more than 700 business units at the decentralized company purchased MRO on its own. Anton's job is to rationalize the supplier base and leverage some of that spending.

He and his team set up national agreements with 15 industrial distributors; each of the suppliers provides the company with specific categories of products such as electrical, power transmission, fasteners, and general industrial supplies. "We believe we have the right supplier partners going forward," says Mike Kamradt, director of corporate strategic sourcing at ITW, who assumed his role late last year. He and Jeff Garing, MRO manager, are working to take these agreements to the next level. They're asking for guaranteed savings which they expect suppliers to deliver through such non-price aspects of total cost as inventory reduction, product substitution and demand management.

ITW has come a long way in a few short years. While the company doesn't mandate use of the preferred suppliers, Anton and his team are selling the benefits of working with fewer suppliers to the business units and are having some success. One of the company's preferred suppliers is reporting a five-fold increase in sales. They're also looking for suppliers with capability to provide goods and services in Europe. "We're not there yet, but we think eventually we will have synergies with our brethren across the pond to work on some things together," says Kamradt.

 

11Feb/080

Offshoring Pleasures and Pitfalls

Does it or doesn't it pay?

Robert B. Aronson, Senior Editor Manufacturing Engineering

The loss of many manufacturing jobs to overseas sources or "offshoring," is a serious concern and the subject of a lot of debate. Statistics and reports are available supporting both the positive and negative aspects of this event. They range from concluding, "US manufacturing is about to die," to "No problem, nothing to worry about."

Much data on offshoring is subject to question because of the variety of ways many sources, including the Federal government, report data. For example one company may report product manufactured domestically and overseas together. Others report them separately. But unquestionably, US jobs are being lost. In addition to offshoring being added to our new buzzwords, so has the word "deployees." It indicates those who have lost jobs or business because of offshoring.

The offshoring situation is not a case of deciding if you will or won't be involved. The issue is how much it will influence your work and what you can do about it.

Offshoring may not last forever. Offshoring will be with us for the foreseeable future. But, there are indications it will not be as pervasive as it is today.

The middle class in advanced Asian countries, particularly China and India, is growing. Workers demand higher wages and more of the population is becoming a market for their own country's products, thus reducing the drive to export.

There is also evidence that Asian countries are becoming more willing to carry out reforms, such as protecting intellectual property, and honoring patents. Such moves take away some of the negative factors of offshoring.

Stories of quality problems with overseas suppliers are common. But the recent problems with lead in paint and hazardous materials in imported grain and pet food have done a lot to shake confidence in Chinese products in general.

It also caused the Chinese government to change, or at least report they are changing, quality-control regulations. They have also executed a few officials reportedly to blame for the problems.

For those faced with an immediate decision as to whether or not to try offshoring, and if so, how deeply, here are some comments by those who have been involved with this situation.

One of the first suggestions given to manufacturers who want to avoid an offshore arrangement is to evaluate their own operations to determine what can be done to reduce production costs. And this means all costs. Many companies make decisions on a limited number of cost factors, chiefly machine operation and associated labor. More accurate evaluations look at costs from the time the raw material comes in until it's shipped, plus any support or warranty action that might be required.

Among the more prominent techniques for cutting at-home manufacturing costs is the Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DFMA) software developed by Boothroyd and Dewhurst (Wakefield, RI). It is software that combines Design for Assembly (DFA) and Design for Manufacture (DFM) programs. DFA software reduces part complexity by consolidating parts into multifunctional designs. DFM helps identify parts that can be improved and indicates what the cost of the new part might be. The result is a design that can be optimized while the product is being developed. DFMA therefore provides a way to evaluate and understand the cost effects of design decisions. The result can be a lower-cost product.

Many companies neglect to take advantage of the latest technology, so production techniques and equipment becomes dated. Or, cost-saving opportunities are ignored in the rush to meet immediate needs. A minimal change in equipment or process often can significantly lower costs.

One option to the yes or no offshore question is a partial yes. Some companies, after a thorough evaluation of their production costs, decide to offshore only those parts where there are significant data supporting the change.

Companies such as BaySource (Tampa, FL) www.baysourceglobal.com specialize in this work, chiefly with small and midsize companies who want to get work done in China.

"We have saved a number of companies from going out of business by arranging for them to have only those parts they cannot make economically go overseas," says company president David Alexander. It is chiefly those that require a lot of low-talent labor.

Setting up any offshoring is safer with competent help. Team 2000 (Austin, TX) is a training and consulting organization that specializes in dealing with India. Company President Rai Chowhary admits, "Offshoring decisions are a real minefield, particularly because there are no hard and fast rules. Every situation is very product and process specific."

It is not just the small companies that have trouble. "Many US manufacturers have been swept into offshoring in the lemming-like rush to cut labor costs, andthe herd mentality that anything made offshore will be very beneficial," says Chowhary. "Often, in a short time, they find there are problems they had not counted on."

For example, there is the case of a large manufacturer who committed to a long-term agreement for a major number of parts with an offshore supplier, without thorough investigation. When the overseas-made parts started showing up, it was found they needed a lot of rework before they were in a usable condition. As a result, special repair shops had to be set up in the US to rework the parts. The parts kept coming because of commitments made earlier and so did the rework costs.

"This does not mean it can't, or shouldn't, be done," says Chowhary, "But it has to be done carefully with the guidance of someone who knows the capabilities of the foreign suppliers as well as the real needs of the US manufacturer. I have advised many of my clients not to go overseas because their particular needs could not be met overseas at a cost advantage to them."

False assumptions are a frequent cause of offshoring problems. A survey sponsored by technology providers E2open (Redwood City, CA) and Manugistics Group (Rockville, MD), found that many companies that had elected to offshore have unexpected logistics costs as well as erratic delivery times. The report concludes: "If you just do it based on pricing negotiations and have not thought through the logistics of delivery, assurance of supply, flexibility of supply, and quality, your total cost very quickly outweighs the price savings you made in the negotiations up front." The report also notes that, too often, companies look at the current design of a product and naturally, but mistakenly, assume that its redesigned predecessor will cost the same amount to produce.

Properly managed, offshoring can be a profitable move. As Gisbert Ledvon of Charmilles (Lincolnshire, IL) notes, "To remain competitive you have to recognize you are operating in a global environment." He suggests those considering such a move stay with parts that need a high degree of low-skilled labor such as simple drilling, punching, or bending processes.

"Another area where overseas help may be beneficial is start up cost," Ledvon comments. "For example, if someone needs a complex die that requires a lot of hand polishing, that might best be done overseas."

Ledvon also notes now this might be a good time to reverse offshoring to some degree. The US dollar might make US goods more attractive to overseas buyers.

Both good and bad results from offshoring are reported by Mike Rickabaugh, president of Livonia Tool and Laser (Livonia, MI). In one case his company, which specializes in laser cutting and steel stamping, benefited from low-quality Chinese work.

On a contract for metal stampings used for industrial shipping containers, a company had to quickly fill an order. It was placed with a Chinese manufacturer. The Chinese ignored the spec to make caster holes in the braces. Casters are critical to this type of container, so the container maker had to quickly farm out all the Chinese parts to have them reworked so he could meet a contract obligation. As a result, Rickabaugh gained a customer.

And it isn't just toys that the Chinese have painted improperly. "We know of other contracts with the Chinese that were cancelled when the buyer, warned by the toy-painting scandal, found his Chinese-manufactured products tested high for lead content," says Rickabaugh. "Several US manufacturers that discovered the same problem now specify American production only.

"You don't always know why the Chinese beat you out on price," Rickenbaugh explains. "It's strange, but we have found that the more weight a product has the tougher it is to beat the Chinese price." For example, his company makes two brackets used for container bracing. "One part's weight was just one pound, and we beat the price on that easily. But the Chinese, making a second part weighing two pounds, using the same processes with comparable machines, were cheaper. Possibly it's an issue with shipping costs or the raw material," he observes.

Vicount Industries (Farmington Hills, MI), is a contract manufacturer with about 25 employees that has been in business for over 30 years. About 90% of their customers are in the auto market, and much of their work involves the manufacture of stamping dies.

The company uses advanced processes, such as laser scanning and 3-D modeling, to establish designs and evaluate manufacturing processes.

"About four years ago, we began looking at some help from overseas suppliers," says company president Leonard Lavoy. "On our own we began a dialogue with some Indian companies. We now have a supplier producing low-tech parts for us. These parts require a significant amount of labor because of set up and handling. So far that has worked out well."

Currently, Lavoy is working through a broker to evaluate some Chinese suppliers.

"Overall, our experience has been on the positive side. We did not lose any workers. In fact, offshoring allowed personnel and machine time to handle more detailed work.

"I would caution any shop considering using an overseas supplier to be sure of their capabilities before you jump in. I find the work quality from India and China below what I would expect from a US company. You have to be as certain as possible that they can do what you expect them to do," he concludes.

It's not practical to make all products or parts offshore. According to a recent Boothroyd and Dewhurst report, the "don't try it" list includes products that:

  • Need some highly automated process,
  • Have a weight or size that incur high shipping or air-freight charges,
  • Require scheduling flexibility,
  • Require engineering and design changes to ensure quality, and
  • Have intellectual rights and/or patents that may be copied and marketed less expensively.

What the CFOs Think

A survey of CFOs and senior financial executives by Alix Partners LLP (Southfield, MI), a global restructuring, consulting, restructuring, and financial advisory services firm, gives both positive and negative views on offshoring. They looked at selling and general administrative trends at 35 blue-chip North American companies and divisions. Their survey found:

  • Outsourcing projects were already under way at 55% of the respondents.
  • Within the next two years 74% reported either continued or planned outsourcing.
  • The hoped-for cost savings of 15%, or expected operational improvement such as enhanced flexibility and access to best practices, was not enjoyed by 60%.
  • Expertise and stability of the overseas supplier was most important for 48% of those surveyed.
  • Reduced cost was the key factor for 31%.
  • Outsourcing projects were considered less than fully effective by 38% of midsize companies, and 15% reported being worse off.
  • Among companies taking six months or more to implement their outsourcing programs, 40% realized savings only after two years or more, while 20% realized no savings at all. But, all companies that carried out their implementations in six months or less realized their expected savings.

The survey also found that the top two reasons for not outsourcing SG&A functions are reluctance to count on overseas suppliers for highly critical parts or products and the perceived risk of losing confidential information.

Alix Partners analysts concluded that companies don't look 'inward' enough, to adequately prepare for all that successful outsourcing demands inside their own companies. Internal resource issues placed well above poor vendor performance, when it came to major problems with outsourcing. "The overriding reason companies aren't getting the returns they want," said Neal Ganguli, co-leader of the survey and a director at AlixPartners, "is they don't ... adequately prepare themselves for all that successful outsourcing demands inside their own organizations."

An executive summary of the survey is available at <!-- var username = "nganguli"; var hostname = "alixpartners.com"; document.write('' + 'nganguli@alixpartners.com' + ''); //--> nganguli@alixpartners.com.

Here's What You Need to Know

Here, a sampling of the questions taken from an 80-question survey developed by Team 2000. It is suggested you know the answers before committing to any offshoring deal.

  • What is driving you to outsource: Because others are doing it? Cost, quality?
  • If you are outsourcing to save cost, how long is your planning horizon?
  • Do you have a cost-benefit analysis for the short and long term? What does this analysis include?
  • How will you deal with rejects and rework? Where will this work be carried out? At whose expense? Is that specified in your contract?
  • What about delays? What assurance do you have on delivery time?
  • What do you know about the suppliers and their capabilities? What is the source of your information?
  • How will your product be packaged to prevent damage or pilferage during shipping?
  • Is your staff conversant with the culture in which the supplier is located? Can they accurately pick up the true meaning of what is said? For example, what does the potential supplier mean by "soon," "accuracy," or "best possible?"
  • How much does the supplier know about the ultimate use or function of your product? And, how do you know that your supplier understands this?
11Feb/081

Private Label Use to Grow

Many distributors are facing that crucial question at this point in their business evolution, weighing the decision of what to do with the "date that brought them to the dance." Early on in most models, distributors leveraged the brands they carried to solidify their position within their target markets. The brands represented the "Seal of Approval" that the DSRs carried in their bag. What do you do however, when there is no longer a national brand requirement on a line where little tangible value is in the brand's product lines or where a product has become "commodified?" Some national branded companies make the decision easy, exiting the space for a respective line and the margin erosion in a category deems it unprofitable to support a line. However, when the Distributor is held hostage to a certain brand and the brand no longer remains cost competitive, the distributor needs to make a choice. The key is does the distributor have the clout and relationships with their book of business to pull off stocking a private label line of goods to compete with a branded line.

In Modern Distribution Management, Adam Fein discusses the "Pros" of embarking on a private label program. For the branded guys, they had better take note for the Distributors' leverage is growing as brand support continues to dwindle in non traditional retail channels. BaySource Global www.baysourceglobal.com  is working with distributors in various industries such as boating and marine, building products, and agricultural to help them in their strategic sourcing initiatives in China, sourcing items that executives have identified as being lost leaders. Better defined, these are items where there is no brand requirement, yet the actual products are commodities that a distributor must carry for the every day functionality to their customer base.

Questions to ask are:

  •   Do we have economies of scale or volumes to justify sourcing direct from China?
  • Do we have someone on board to "champion" the management of offshore sourcing?
  • Are we jeapordizing our business relationship with the branded incumbant in bypassing them to source direct and will this affect my costs on other items?
  • Have we determined realistic target costs for the items that we will take offshore?  If we obtain these costs have we factored in other crucial benchmarks such as carrying cost of capital for additional days on hand of inventory, physical plant requirements (storage)?
  • Are items we intend to source directly protected by patents or other measures?
  • Do we have the necessary information to have the product(s) manufactured offshore such as material specifications, quality requirements and standards, ratings, drawings, samples--note this is where resources have to be relegated to championing the project.
Strategy will strengthen but also strain relationships

In his book, Facing the Forces of Change, Adam J Fein, Ph.D discusses the evolution ofPrivate label products—products branded by a wholesaler-distributor—and how they represent a break from the more traditional wholesale distribution approach of reselling manufacturers’ branded products. Facing the Forces of Change®: Lead the Way in the Supply Chain, discusses private label strategies by wholesaler-distributors will expand substantially over the next five years.

Fein asserts that Wholesaler-distributors will need to build new capabilities in manufacturing and design in order to create products with unique, premium benefits. They will also have to select the right opportunities for private labels and manage the new supply chain risks associated with global sourcing.

Today, according to Dr. Fein, "an average, 43 percent of wholesaler-distributors currently sell their own private label products, although there are substantial differences between the six major product types in our study. For example, almost one-half of building materials wholesaler-distributors currently offer private label products, compared to only 23 percent of contractor supplies wholesaler-distributors." Fein goes on to say "the lower costs and ready availability of overseas sourcing opportunities in Asia and South America accelerate the ability of wholesaler-distributors to get their own value-priced private label products manufactured. About 57 percent of wholesaler-distributors with private labels currently source their private label product from an overseas plant. By 2012, 81 percent of these wholesaler-distributors expect to be sourcing overseas.

According to Fein, Private label products offer three major benefits to wholesaler-distributors:

  • Buy-side margin. Private label products can be priced lower than comparable national brand products, especially when sourced directly from an overseas manufacturer. Since private label products are less expensive to purchase, a distributor can earn a higher margin even when the products are priced at a discount to national brand products. This option simultaneously grows margins for the distributor and aligns the distributor more closely with its customer’s objectives.
  • Sell-side profitability. A wholesaler-distributor’s private label products offer the opportunity for increased profitability by capturing the branded margin that would otherwise flow to an upstream manufacturer. The distributor also gains the ability to control the entire profit stream from production to sale, allowing for more flexible sales compensation models and higher commissions to drive sales. For example, a distributor can reduce the advertising overhead of a national brand manufacturer, especially on certain products for which customers see no value differentiation.
  • Differentiated product assortment. A private label brand name can be exclusive to a wholesaler-distributor and provide a point of differentiation. For example, some wholesaler-distributors find that they can fill gaps in the marketplace by offering the good (value) alternative in a good/better/best hierarchy. Availability can be another point of differentiation. A private label product can be sourced from multiple manufacturing companies and this gives a distributor the opportunity for more consistent product availability than when sourcing from uniquely branded manufacturers.

More can be found in his Facing the Forces of Change®: Lead the Way in the Supply Chain, which is available online from the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors at  (http://www.mdm.com/stories/fein3701.html)

*Pembroke Consulting is not in any way affiliated with BaySource Global or its China office Eastlink Global Ltd.

25Jan/080

How Chindia will impact the world economy

25jagdish1.jpgJanuary 25, 2008
Among the large emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, Nigeria and Indonesia, it is the rise of China and India (Chindia) which will have (and already has) enormous business implications during the first half of this Century mostly beneficial to the world. First, both nations will require enormous natural resources because not only are they manufacturing and service centers of the world, but because of their own rapidly expanding domestic consumer markets. And this demand for natural and industrial resources such as oil, gas, coal, copper, bauxite, aluminum, iron and steel will be for many years.While China today is roughly nine times as big as India, it is expected that China will very soon become an aged and affl uent nation, similar to what happened to Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and others and will begin to plateau its economic growth. Also, it will outsource manufacturing to other nations, especially in Africa and other resource rich nations.The rapid aging of Chinese population attributed to its one child policy implemented over two generations will impact its domestic economic growth. On the other hand, while India is at present one tenth in size of China, it will experience accelerated growth in less than ten years with better infrastructure, political reforms and fi nancial transparency.

Also, India will refocus on manufacturing both for global supply as well as for its domestic demand. Unlike China, however, India's manufacturing will be selective and largely concentrated on high-end aerospace, military, space and consumer durables including automobiles and appliances. It will begin to catch up with China and some experts even believe that its growth rate will surpass that of China. In any case, both nations with more than a billion people each, will have enormous need for industrial, agricultural and other natural resources and raw materials.

Since a vast majority of these untapped resources are in other dormant or emerging economies in Africa, Caribbean, Latin America, Central Asia and Russia, the rise of Chindia will create economic boom for them which otherwise did not happen for nearly 200 years of colonial rule.

Second, the global integration of China and India will be radically different. India's economy and enterprises will be globally integrated especially with other advanced countries (Europe, US, Canada, UK, Australia, Singapore, Japan, South Korea) through large scale acquisitions of well established and well respected foreign companies with technology, branding and manufacturing assets.

The journey has already begun with Mittal Steel's acquisition of Arcelor, Tata Steel's [Get Quote] acquisition of Corus Steel, and Hindalo's acquisition of Novelis (largest North American sheet aluminum company). And it will not be limited to industrial raw materials and to private enterprises of India. For example, several large public sector units (PSUs) of India such as ONGC [Get Quote] (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation), Indian oil [Get Quote] and SBI [Get Quote] (State Bank of India), who have the domestic scale and capital reserve, are starting to fl ex their acquisition muscles. Similarly,

Wipro [Get Quote], an information technology (IT), engineering services, as well as consumer products company, has recently made several worldwide acquisitions (including Infocrossing, a data center company in the US, and Unza, a personal care consumer products company in Singapore).

Finally, Ranbaxy [Get Quote] and Dr. Reddy's have become significant players in the global pharma industry largely through acquisitions. So have Mafatlal and Raymonds in fashion and garments. In other words, India will contribute to global growth as much, if not more, through revitalizing and investing in Western assets as it would through growth of its domestic consumer markets.

On the other hand, China's growth will be proportionately more domestic and only on a selective basis through global acquisitions. This is due to several reasons. First, China has begun to focus on domestic demand especially in consumer markets such as consumer electronics, appliances, automobiles and financial services. It has the physical infrastructure as well as large scale domestic state-owned enterprises such as Haier, Lenovo, China Mobil, Petro China and China Development Bank [Get Quote] to capitalize on domestic demand.

Second, the advanced world seems less willing to sell their assets to China (especially technology assets) due to what I believe are myopic misperceptions about the peaceful rise of China (in contrast to rise of India).

For example, Chinese oil company, CNOOC's attempt to buy Unocal as well as Haier's (the largest Chinese appliance company) attempt to buy Maytag Company in the US, met with political resistance. The obvious exception is IBM's sale of its personal computer (PC) business to Lenovo. But it is more an exception.

Consequently, Chinese enterprises that have the scale and incumbency advantage to dominate the domestic Chinese markets will end up expanding globally by first going to other emerging economies such as countries in Africa, Caribbean, Latin American and the ASEAN as well as in Central Asia and India, both through trade as well as foreign direct investment (FDI). In addition, despite history and current uneasiness of rise of China, it is inevitable that both Japan and South Korea will quickly integrate their economies with China, just as what Taiwan has already done.

This will result in rapid growth in bilateral trade as well as reciprocal foreign direct investment between China and Japan and China and South Korea. Consequently, the largest trading bloc will be Asia especially with free trade with India. This will require formation of a new currency comparable to the Euro; and it will become the dominant currency of the world similar to the rise of the dollar as a global currency after World War I.

While the global integration paths taken by China and India will be different, their impact on businesses worldwide either as suppliers, customers, partners or competitors will be benefi cial and enormous. In fact, it is no exaggeration to state that the future survival of most admired enterprises from all advanced economies including the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, Japan, and South Korea will depend on how quickly they participate in ensuing rise of China and India even if they have to distance from their own government's politics and public opinion.

This includes companies such as General Electric, HSBC, Mercedes Benz, Siemens, Alcatel and many others.

Extracted from: Chindia Rising by Jagdish N Sheth.